For the development of new complex technical systems such as voltage switchgears or complex electric circuits, reliable information on the failure behavior of the separate devices of the system is desired in order to evaluate the failure behavior, in particular the failure rate of the entire system. Only then, highly dependable systems satisfying a required safety, or reliability and availability, can be provided. This is sometimes considered important because otherwise, there may arise a risk of economic damages through, e.g. injury to reputation, warrantee claims and contractual penalties, as well as a risk of environmental and personal damages.
Typically, the failure behavior of the separate devices can be expressed as random distributions for the failure time (in case of exponential distribution characterized by parameters such as failure rate or average lifetime before failure). These parameters can be evaluated by performing lifetime tests on the individual devices. However, lifetime tests are not necessarily part of the qualification tests that a manufacturer performs on the manufactured devices, and are not necessarily performed otherwise because this task is time-consuming and expensive. In such case, it is necessary to analyze the entire failing system to find which device caused a system to fail. This is also technically demanding, time-consuming and expensive, especially for complex systems such as voltage switchgears, medical scanners or motors.
In view of the above disadvantages, it is one object of this disclosure to provide improved methods for estimating the reliability of a technical system.
In particular a method for easily determining a failure behavior of a new technical system is desirable. A further objective is to improve the reliability of a new technical system.